MMA / Predictions / UFC

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 170 Brazil: Gilbert Burns vs. Demian Maia

by matmartial · Published March 14, 2020 · Updated October 26, 2020

Demian Maia
Gilbert Burns
UFC Fight Night 170
Brasilia Brazil
Ginasio Nilson Nelson
MMA
mixed martial arts
fights
Saturday night fights
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
BJJ
jiu-jitsu
jujitss
choke
rear naked choke
prediction
round 3
odds

Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Ginásio Nilson Nelson

Demian Maia +155 / Gilbert Burns -175

TV: ESPN and ESPN+

Demian Maia and Gilbert Burns will fight Saturday, March 14, at UFC Fight Night 170 in Brazil. The highly anticipated bout between two world class jiu-jitsu fighters is scheduled for the Co-Main Event to take place at Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil.

Reminder that the Prelims will start early, at 3:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday afternoon. The main card, headlined by Kevin Lee vs Charles Cowboy Oliviera, will kick off at 6:00 pm. Eastern.

The odds makers have Gilbert Burns as the favorite at -175. Demian Maia comes back as the underdog at +155.

Gilbert Burns

Gilbert Burns enters this fight with a 17-3 record, and eight of those wins have come by submission. Burns also has 5 knockouts to his credit.

Burns has some momentum coming into this fight having beaten a very tough Gunnar Nelson by decision in his most recent bout on September 28, 2019.

4 Time BJJ World Champion

Burns is a 4 time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Champion. He holds a second degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Rafael “Fofitio” Barros. Known for his BJJ pedigree, Burns has not looked bad in the stand up either.

The 33 year old Burns comes forward and looks to push the pace. He lands an average of 3.09 significant strikes per minute, and he absorbs 3.05 significant strikes per minute (a +0.04 differential).

He has proven that he is not afraid to mix things up on the feet because of his confidence in his BJJ ground skills. That is why five of the wins on his record have come by knock out.

However, Burns still manages to average 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a takedown accuracy rate of 38 percent. His takedown defense rate is an even 50 percent.

Although he now fights out of Lantana, Florida, on Saturday he will tally his 11th profession MMA fight in his native Brazil.

Demian Maia

Demian Maia comes into the fight with a 28-9 profession MMA record. He has won half of all his victories by submission.

Although, his winning percentage overall has recently dropped to just 50%. He has gon3 3-3 in his last 6 fights.

Interestingly, at 42 years of age, Maia has agreed to take this fight with burns in the 170 pound welterweight division. While Burns has fights at 155, Maia has fought for the title at 185. Even though that fight was 10 years ago (an incredible snooze-fest against Anderson Silva) fighting at a lower weight as he gets into his 40s leaves me scratching my head.

Regardless of age, Maia should be the bigger man inside the cage on Saturday. And he also comes into this fight with momentum following his rear naked strangle or highly regarded wrestler Ben Askren back in October.

World Class BJJ Submission Artist

Maia’s grappling credentials are world class. Most who should know have said that Maia is the best BJJ fighter in all of MMA. This is a distinction he has held for well over a decade. To prove it, Maia has grappling victories over the likes of fellow UFC veterans, and all around scary guys, Ronaldo Jacare Souza and Gabriel Gonzaga. Maia had his first profession MMA fight in 2001.

If there is a knock on Maia’s fighting style it would certainly be his striking skills. He still doesn’t look fluid on the feet. You know he will be looking to get the fight to the ground where he is at home. Speaking of which, Saturday will mark Maia’s 10th career MMA fight in his home country of Brazil.

Analysis: Gilbert Burns vs. Demian Maia

Both fighters have absolutely world class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills. Both can finish fight with submissions on the ground.

Maia has only been finished one time in 28 fights. Nate “The Great” Marquartd knocked Maia out in less than 30 seconds back in 2009. It was Maia’ s 12th fight and his first loss.

I believe Burns is the favorite because, in theory, he has more ways to win: on the feet or on the ground. I just don’t buy into the theory.

Maia will be bigger than Burns inside the cage, and I believe his grappling strength is superior to Burns. At 42 years old, Maia is also an experienced veteran. That experience might just be the difference in the fight.

Unfortunately, Maia has proven that he is not afraid to put on a boring fight if he thinks he has to. Fortunately, I think this fight will be anything but boring. I expect Burns to come forward more than Anderson Silva did in Abu Dhabi in 2010.

Prediction: Gilbert Burns vs. Demian Maia

At Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil on Saturday, Burns will be the aggressor from the opening bell.

Maia will look to keep his distance, but he will ultimately secure the clinch and take Burns down. Once on the mat, Burns will defend well initially, but this is an MMA fight not a BJJ competition.

Maia will soften Burns up with strikes on the ground. As Burns looks to defend the strikes, Maia will sink in and secure a submission. I predict Maia will win by rear naked choke in the third round.